April 16th, 2012

Ten Week Update

 

*Every ten weeks, I take a look back at some of the topics that were discussed in the ten previous articles to give updates and see how my predictions are holding up.

 

-Super Bowl Squares: In an article written the week leading up to the Super Bowl, I asserted that numbered squares are among some of the more ridiculous betting pools, as the odds are extremely skewed depending on which number set you receive.  The fun in gambling is betting on a fair chance and watching to see if luck is on your side.  But for the VAST majority of people who get the dud number sets, they have almost nothing to hope for, as many are severe statistical improbabilities.  The Super Bowl, as it turned out, came up with the following number sets for each of the four quarters: (9,0), (0,9), (7,5), (1,7).  Each combination came from numbered sets that have proven themselves statistically probable over time.  Even (7,5) is in the top half of the best numbers in terms of likely occurrence.  Once again, as I said in the original article, there is nothing deceptive or unfair about some number sets being much better than the other number sets, because they are given out at random; it’s just sad that so many people will fork over their money (sometimes a lot of money) for a square and get a number set leaving them with little to no chance of winning.  Even in a Super Bowl with a safety (Tom Brady’s intentional grounding in the endzone) and a failed two-point conversion, the numbers didn’t steer off course, hitting up some of the usual suspects, further proof that the grids themselves are extremely inequitable.  Next year, take the money you normally reserve for a number square and lay it down on the team you think will cover the spread, sparing yourself the hopeless despair of getting stuck with one of those awful combinations – or worse yet, getting one of the good ones and having it not come through.

 

-Linsanity: Anyone could have foreseen Linsanity fading as the luster of its newness wore off, but what to make of the phenomenon now that it’s firmly in the rearview mirror?  In a general sense, I asserted in a February article that Jeremy Lin was only notable for his visual strangeness, a product of how deeply entrenched racial stereotypes are.  Most of the Lin hysteria came from his ethnicity, or as I put it back in February, “the truth is that it’s fascinating to see a skinny Asian kid, who went to Harvard no less, tearing up the African-American dominated NBA.”  But at the beginning, and even a few weeks into the most intense period of Linsanity, his stats were tough to explain.  In a ten game stretch spanning from February 4th to February 20th, Lin averaged 24.6 ppg and 9.2 apg, leading the Knicks to an 8-2 record.  It was gaudy stuff.  Linsanity, it appeared, was legitimate.  But over the next 16 games, before going down with a season-ending knee injury, Lin’s numbers tailed off.  He managed double digit assists just three times and broke the 20 point plateau only twice (each time getting stuck at exactly 20).  In addition, the Knicks went just 8-8 in that stretch.  The reasons for the drop off are many, including fatigue from extended minutes, teams getting better scouting reports, and the abdication of Coach Mike Dantoni; but most of all, the return of Carmelo Anthony made stats harder to come by.  Such is the reality of NBA games.  The quarters are so long that stats are going to get piled up, regardless of who is on the floor.  As I pointed out in that original article, Lin was playing with a myriad of defensive stalwarts that didn’t really want the ball.  Understandably, his production went through the roof in a ten game spasm of energetic play, gutsy performance, and fortunate timing.  Once Carmelo came back, with his propensity for clear outs and isolations, Lin’s stats suffered, as they are controlled by a certain measure of scarcity.  For a reasonable comparison, consider Nate Robinson, a perennial bench warmer who has exploded over the past two weeks.  No one has jumped to the conclusion that NateRob is suddenly worth a damn, he’s just profited from increased minutes, injuries, the Warriors openly trying to lose to improve draft position, and well, someone has to score.  Lin’s initial burst of production was exaggerated by a situation tailored towards statistical success.  As for Lin’s long term viability, the jury is still out.  Though his numbers declined, he has a reasonable chance to be a good point guard on a good team…long after the insanity has passed.

 

-The Dunk Contest is Meaningless – To prove the utter pointlessness of the NBA Dunk Contest, can anyone out there remember who won?  Can anyone remember any of the dunks that were performed?  Well, the answer to the former is Jeremy Evans and the answer to the latter is no.  Playing for the Utah Jazz, Jeremy Evans' season stats are 1.6 ppg, .3 apg, and 1.3 rpg.  The winner of the dunk contest in the best professional basketball league in the world shouldn’t be as obscure as the winner of the Hog Toss at the Hickville County Fair.

 

-The Bobcats are REALLY bad: In a late February article, I discussed the growing possibility of the Bobcats becoming the worst NBA team of all time.  At that point in the season, the Bobcats were a miserable 4-28.  In the two months since, they’ve managed just 3 more wins.  Their record stands at 7-53.  With six games remaining, four of which against playoff bound teams, the Bobcats will most likely continue their current losing streak until the end of the season, which will extend it to an implausible 23 straight games.  Inconceivably, I was wrong: the Bobcats are WAY worse than I ever could have imagined.

 

-Odom gets the boot: At the beginning of March, I postulated that Lamar Odom’s struggles in Dallas were non-basketball related.  I took it as a serious sign of disturbance that the Mavericks considered sending Odom to an NBDL affiliate for a recovery stint.  This simply doesn’t happen with established NBA veterans, which Odom certainly is.  Something else was wrong.  I laid out several possibilities for Odom’s troubles, including a feeling of disrespect in the trade process, the jarring effect of being uprooted from his longtime home in Los Angeles, and of course the influence of his mega-famous wife.  But, to me, there was no question that Odom’s problems were not attributable to basketball concerns, which meant that a stint in the NBDL would be meaningless, along with any other attempt to rectify the situation through basketball-related efforts.  The parties involved had to get together and figure out a reasonable resolution to the problem and stop acting like Odom was just going to get over whatever was messing with his head.  Odom had to be convinced to honor his contract and be a professional.  As it turned out, Odom had no intention of doing that.  After a heated exchange with Mark Cuban last week, Odom was placed on the inactive list for the rest of the season.  And most people, including me, were none too surprised.